Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and changes in
temperature and humidity due to a changing climate will, especially in the longer
term, cause an acceleration of deterioration processes and consequently
acceleration in the decline of the safety, serviceability and durability of concrete
infrastructure. An investigation of concrete carbonation-induced deterioration in
typical Australian and Chinese cities under a changing climate is described in this
paper. It is based on Monte-Carlo simulation analysis that involves three emission
scenarios, i.e. A1B, A1FI and 550 ppm stabilisation. The probabilistic analysis
included the uncertainty of climate predictions, deterioration processes, material
properties, dimensions, and predictive models. Deterioration of concrete structures is represented by the probability of reinforcement corrosion initiation and corrosion
induced damage at a given calendar year between 2010 and 2100, and all of them
are affected by the changing climate depending on locations. It was found that
carbonation depths may increase by more than 45% for inland locations in Australia.
It was also found that carbonation-induced damage risks can increase threefold by
2100 to 2% for Canberra. The findings provide a basis for the development of
climate adaptation strategies through the improved design of concrete structures.